I still remember the moment I first learned about guerrilla warfare—in fifth grade. Mr. Schlamb regaled our class with the story of how the British army lost the Revolutionary War by relying on stodgy battlefield decorum. Dressed in their ostentatious red uniforms, British soldiers lined up in orderly formations to fire upon their enemies—and to be fired upon in return. Once the choreographed melee ended, the victorious army was the one still standing.
The continental army did not truck with such silliness. Years of living hand to mouth beside native Americans taught them the utility of unconventional warfare like ambushes and sneak attacks. “British advantages in having the best trained and equipped military in the world were no match for realities on the ground,” explains battlefield.org. “American forces had the tactical advantage of knowing the country better than their British counterparts. Washington accepted the Fabian strategy of deception and poking and prodding the enemy, and guerilla tactics were used to harass British posts and baggage trains wherever possible.”
Fast forward several hundred years, and we must ask: Do AI-powered drones represent the modern evolution of guerrilla warfare? More importantly—will those countries that don’t embrace such tech get routed just like the redcoats?
To explore this topic, we must first recognize the remarkable advancements in military drone technology—starting with a pivotal moment in modern warfare. Back in 1960, several years into the Cold War, American pilot Francis Gary Powers flew a covert mission over the U.S.S.R. Believing his high-altitude plane was safe from enemy missiles, he surreptitiously photographed valuable military sites.
The Soviets quickly responded. They shot Powers down over Sverdlovsk, embarrassing the Eisenhower administration. The international incident set back diplomatic efforts between the hostile nations, nearly sparking a kinetic crisis. As Palladiummag.com explains, this debacle led to much soul-searching amongst American military planners. “The United States found itself in a precarious position. While the need for surveillance remained critical, the risk of another pilot capture was untenable. The solution that emerged was elegantly straightforward: eliminate the need for a human pilot altogether.”
Decades later the U.S. turned to unmanned drones in the so-called War of Terror involving military incursions in countries spanning Iraq, Afghanistan, Yemen, Libya, and Pakistan. “Perhaps out of fear of strategic loss of national will over unpopular U.S. and coalition casualties, Central Command seems to have accepted drones as the current weapon of choice in the fight against Al-Qaeda and the Taliban,” the ArmyUPress.com reports. “According to one estimate, by March 2011 at least 33 Al-Qaeda and Taliban leaders (high-value targets) had been killed by the drones and from 1,100 to 1,800 insurgent fighters had been killed as well.”
Now that we are into the mid-2020s, it’s undeniable the drone industry has evolved its military potential with advancements in high-performance computing and AI. AgEagle Aerial Systems is one company involved in this evolving synthesis. As a global technology innovator, its focus is on enhancing situational awareness via autonomous drones largely for the defense industry.
I recently sat down with the company’s CEO Bill Irby to better understand drones’ usage as a competitive military advantage. “From a military standpoint, AI has significant value in the initial phases of a mission. It can help get systems up and running properly in their area of interest, navigate to specific target locations, and utilize what was once called automated target recognition. This technology allows for automatic identification of targets and potential action by drones conducting surveillance.”
Drone swarming is yet another mechanism for projecting military dominance in our technologically advancing warfare age. “This innovative approach involves deploying large numbers of small, coordinated drones that can work together to accomplish complex missions,” explains Farmonaut.com. Maybe it’s just me but picturing 1,000 individual drones operating in a hive formation can’t help but conjure images of plagues reigning down on Egypt.
Biblical or not, Irby paints a picture of how such drones already function in modern warfare as a guerilla tactic paying battlefield dividends. “We’ve seen in Ukraine how commercial drones have been equipped and enhanced to provide a significant tactical advantage, even against a nuclear-equipped military. Small, coordinated drone units can conduct surveillance and even deliver payloads in ways traditional forces struggle to counter. It’s essentially a modern version of guerrilla warfare, where tech levels the playing field against larger, more conventional armies.”
Contemplating these words reminds me of Top Gun: Maverick (2022). If you will recall, the movie’s plot revolves around a suicide flying mission in which Maverick (Tom Cruise) sets out to prove humans are still indispensable to the military. Perhaps because this is Hollywood fare, we are meant to believe tomorrow’s armed forces won’t be entirely comprised of machines.
In my heart I have to wonder if this is true or not. Either way, the film does a masterful job of showcasing a symbiosis between machines and humans in which the latter is still relevant. Brightwalldarkroom.com beautifully captures this dichotomy in its critical review: “Machines, after all, can’t kick sand up after them as they celebrate their teammates reaching the end zone. They can’t make that brief moment of eye contact that says something like, You got me? You ready?—that prefaces a perfect pass. But people? We can collaborate, cooperate, and make decisions in the interest of someone, not ourselves. We can believe in the impossible, and, in believing, make it so. It’s not the plane, it’s the pilot.”
Evocative words, they cannot help but make us reflect on how far humanity has come since our Valley Forge days fighting off the British to birth this nation. Returning to our larger discussion, let us assume humans will still be essential to future wars, even with AI-powered drone advances. Future soldiers will benefit from next-generation guerilla technologies—including drones they can carry on their person.
War technology has come a long way since Washington.
This portable drone technology will inevitably empower smaller forces to outmaneuver larger opponents, echoing the guerrilla tactics that enabled American Revolutionaries to triumph over the British. “Tomorrow’s soldiers won’t be limited to large-scale, centralized drone deployments,” says Irby. “Already, individual units can carry compact, AI-driven drones in their rucksacks, ready for instant launch on the battlefield. “A soldier can deploy a drone within minutes, using it for real-time surveillance, reconnaissance, or target identification. With AI-driven automation, these drones can adapt to dynamic combat environments, providing invaluable situational awareness.”
These innovations suggest America will stay competitive in an evolving defensive landscape. Still, the future of AI-powered drones isn’t just wrapped up in destruction. Already, they have mass applications beyond the battlefield, from disaster relief to environmental monitoring and commercial security. In fact, the same technology shaping the next generation of military strategy already serves many other ends, including commercial uses, such as deliveries.
Looking forward, I can’t help but think about George Washington, the legend I learned about in fifth grade. For all his military aptitude and leadership acumen our first president couldn’t foresee how his battlefield efforts would one day produce today’s society, one in which AI-powered drones would signal the next leap in military engagements, commerce, and more.
While AI-powered drones are set to redefine modern warfare, they also raise urgent ethical concerns. Will we allow this innovation to spiral into a new arms race, this time with technologically sophisticated nations like China? Or with rogue actors capable of using such unconventional warfare to unspeakable ends? Again, these questions weren’t on the founders of our nations’ minds all those years ago as they broke away from the British.
But they should occupy our thoughts today.
For now, implications remain uncertain. Questions remain unanswered. Yet one thing is clear: AI-powered drones are not just the next evolution of guerrilla warfare—they are the next evolution of human ingenuity. Our challenge ahead is not merely to employ such power to retain our way of life. Instead, it’s to ensure we wield it to create a better tomorrow for the next generation.
Article originally published in Forbes.
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